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The
Relevance of Productivity: From Macro to Micro
By
Carlos Gustavo Machicado* and Juan
Cristobal Birbuett**, La Paz, 23 February 2009.
A longstanding
question in economics is why some countries are much wealthier
than others. Recent studies show that one part of the answer has
much to do with differences in productivity levels among
countries. Since the seminal work of Solow
(1), an important concern in economic literature has been
how to measure productivity. If productivity has a strong
influence on growth and welfare in the long run, having a good
productivity measure is a crucial element.
Several studies on
development revealed that the gap between Latin America and the
developed world has increased. According to Maddison
(2) the income per capita in Latin
America was, on average, 25% of the income per capita in United
States (U.S.) between 1950 and 1980, and it decreased to 20%
between 1980 and 2000. Following this, Cavalcanti, Pessoa and
Veloso (3), found that Latin America’s
Total Factor Productivity (TFP), relative to the U.S., decreased
over time. Indeed, Latin America’s TFP was around 90% from 1960
to 1975, but then fell to 62% in 2000. They came to these
results by performing a modified growth accounting exercise
which includes physical and human capital data.
Another study,
performed by De Gregorio (4), arrives
at similar conclusions. He found that, in 2000, the purchasing
poverty parity corrected GDP per capita in Latin America has
been only 21% of the U.S. GDP. He suggests that the main element
behind this issue is the difference in productivity among Latin
America and U.S. He came to that conclusion by taking into
account that in 2000 the capital/output ratio in Latin America
was 27% less than that of the U.S., the accessibility to
qualified human capital was 42% (5)
less, but the TFP was 57% lower. Certainly, there are more
differences in the performance of the production factors than in
the factors availability. Then, it seems that policies aimed to
promote a convergence process in terms of per capita income have
to focus mainly in productivity.
If productivity is
so important, then it is necessary to find the best method to
compute it. It is widely accepted that the best way to compute
productivity is at the micro level, specifically, at the firm
level. It can be done by calculating the output/employment and
output/capital ratios. But, for these calculations, the best
scenario is one where output and inputs are available in
physical terms (i.e. quantities produced, man-hours, machine-hours,
etc). However, this scenario greatly depends on availability of
information collected in enterprise surveys and usually these
datasets do not contain this kind of information.
To deal with this
problem economists have used aggregate variables for the
computation of these ratios and in particular for the
computation of TFP. Growth accounting exercises became popular
in the macro literature, and TFP measures proliferate in
particular for developed countries. But these measures do not
only face the aggregation problem of variables, but also a
problem that is typical in macroeconomics: TFP is computed as a
residual, and then, nothing guarantees that this residual is
reflecting purely productivity.
Nowadays, the literature on productivity has turned to
evaluating TFP using firm-level data. In other words, it has
gone from macro to micro again. Nevertheless, the data problem
is still present and in the absence of physical information on
capital and labor, economists have to use nominal variables, i.e.
value-added, book value of capital remunerations, among others.
The problem with these revenue based measures of TFP is that
they could imply serious misspecifications problems, as TFP
summarizes not only pure productivity, but other factors like
change in prices, economic cycles, market power, public policies,
and many others that may cause large distortions on the results.
Nevertheless, new
measures of TFP have been developed since the Restuccia and
Rogerson (6) and Hsieh and Klenow
(7) papers, as TFP is a combination of
revenue productivity and a physical productivity. This new
literature stresses the fact that productivity is low due to
misallocation of resources. Economics is the science which
studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and
scarce means which have alternative uses. Scarcity means that
available resources are insufficient to satisfy all wants and
needs. The subject thus defined involves the study of choices in
the allocation of resources as they are affected by incentives,
barriers and availability.
Economics started as
a science where the main subject was the allocation of resources.
In the beginning this allocation was conceived at a micro level.
The rise of Keynesian economics created a place for
macroeconomics as the other main branch of economic theory along
with microeconomic theory (8). The fact
that economists are studying again productivity in a micro
context reveals that in the twenty-first century economists are
trying to clarify the connection between the principles of
macroeconomics and the more familiar principles of microeconomic
theory.
Related articles:
-
How
Productive is the Informal Sector?
-
Salary
versus Productivity
(*) Researcher, Institute for Advanced Development
Studies, La Paz, Bolivia. The author happily receives comments
at the following e-mail:
cmachicado@inesad.edu.bo
.
(**) Researcher at the Centre for
Promotion of Sustainable Technologies, La Paz, Bolivia.
(1) Solow, Robert (1956), “A
Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 70, pp. 65-94
(2) Maddison, Angus (2003), The World
Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre,
Paris.
(3) Cavalcanti Ferreira, Samuel Pessoa
and Fernando Veloso (2006), “The Evolution of TFP in Latin
America”, working paper, Fundacao Getulio Vargas.
(4) De Gregorio, José (2008), “El
Crecimiento Económico de la América Latina. Del desencanto del
siglo XX a los desafíos del XXI” El Trimestre Económico, vol.
LXXV(1), núm. 297, pp.5-45.
(5) The human capital data are based
exclusively on education achievement measures of the labor
force, and they are not adjusted by education quality.
(6) Restuccia, D. and Richard Rogerson
(2008), “Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with
Heterogeneous Establishments”, Review of Economic Dynamics,
Vol.11 (4), pp. 707-720.
(7) Hsieh, Chang-Tai and Peter J.
Klenow (2007) “Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China
and India”, University of California, Berkeley, mimeo.
(8) Microeconomic theory is the modern
version of the “theory of value” that had constituted
virtually the entire content of economic theory in the
nineteenth century.
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